Ramapo, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

964
FXUS61 KOKX 292103
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
403 PM EST Wed Jan 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front passes south and east of the area early this
evening. High pressure briefly builds in tonight and moves
offshore Thursday. A frontal system impacts the area late
Thursday night and Friday, followed by high pressure Saturday
into Sunday. The high pressure gives way to a weaker frontal
system Sunday night into Monday. High pressure may return next
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
At 20Z a cold front was moving through eastern Connecticut and
into Long Island with a few rain showers ahead of this low, with
temperatures in the lower 50s. Behind the front temperatures
fall, with scattered rain showers and possible a few snow
showers. Wind gusts have reached advisory levels across inland
higher elevations, and may be near advisory across the
remainder of the area. Soundings do indicate mixing weakens this
evening, with gusts diminishing, and may fall be advisory
levels early this evening. A Wind Advisory remains in effect
until 1000 PM EST, and this may be cancelled this evening.
Behind the front height rise as ridging builds into the region
tonight, and winds and gusts will be diminishing late.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure moves across the region Thursday, as upper
ridging also crosses the area and moves offshore late Thursday
afternoon. With the high generally to the south the will be no
cold air damming or a blocking high to the north. Also, with
the approach of the next frontal system Thursday night, and
mainly toward Friday morning, a deep southerly flow will be
developing as warm air moves in aloft. Soundings are indicting a
rather shallow surface cold layer across the interior, and
especially the valleys. With the onset toward Friday morning,
rain is expected across most of the southwestern section, with
the possibility of light freezing rain inland. Light ice
accumulations are expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Unsettled weather will occur on Friday as low pressure and its
associated frontal system impacts the region. The modeling has
largely been consistent with the evolution of the system over the
last few days with slight adjustments to the track of the low. The
pattern continues to support a liquid event as there is no arctic
air source to advect cold and dry air southward. The only concern
for any frozen precip will be at the onset of the event early Friday
morning across the interior. Surface temperatures will be slower to
rise above freezing with potential for a period of light freezing
rain. The parent low passing over or just N of the area support
surface winds increasing out of the SW, helping to warm temperatures
above freezing. It may take until mid morning for some of the valley
locations to fully rise above freezing, but overall the Friday event
will be a cold rain. Ice accretion of a few hundredths is possible
across the interior and a winter weather advisory may be needed for
Friday morning if current trends hold.

The cold rain will persist into the evening before tapering off from
west to east the first half of the night. Liquid equivalent amounts
total around three tenths inland to just under an inch out east.
High temperatures on Friday may be reached late in the day once the
low moves across the area, generally in the lower to middle 40s.
Colder air will return behind the system Friday night, but middle
level drying will likely prevent any wrap around precip. Lows by
early Saturday range from the 20s to low 30s.

The model guidance continues to be in agreement on the overall
synoptic flow pattern this weekend into next week. The flow will be
zonal with mainly flat shortwaves potentially passing through from
time to time. Surface high pressure will move over New England on
Saturday before retreating east on Sunday. A weak frontal system
moves through Sunday night into Monday. Precip chances appear low
Sunday night into Monday with any notable trend on the models
shifting the parent north the last several cycles. This may lead to
chance of light rain at the coast and some light snow inland Sunday
as the associated warm front lifts through the area. PoPs have been
capped off at chance given the weak system and continued uncertainty
with timing, track, and amplitude. Brief high pressure follows on
Tuesday before potential of another fast moving system mid week.

Temperatures will largely be near normal with the only exception of
Monday where temperatures should be above seasonable levels.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Deepening low pressure passing to the north will drag a strong
cold front through the area by early this evening. The low will
track northeast tonight across the Canadian Maritimes with high
pressure building in from the southwest.

WNW winds 20-25kt G30-40kt will gradually veer around to the NW
by early this evening. A few higher gusts are possible. There
is also some uncertainty with how quickly winds fall off tonight
and its possible some of these higher gusts continue a bit
longer than forecast. Expect NW G20-25kt by 12Z Thursday,
continuing to gradually drop through the day.

Isolated to scattered showers can be expected through early
this evening. A brief rain/snow mix is possible at KSWF.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Wind shift timing with the cold frontal passage may vary by an hour.
Higher gusts of 35-40kt may linger into the first half of tonight.

.OUTLOOK FOR 21Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thursday Afternoon/Night: Chance of MVFR or lower in rain late at
night, possibly starting as freezing rain at KSWF.

Friday: Any freezing rain at KSWF in the morning changing to rain
with MVFR or lower, possibly ending as light snow at KSWF after
midnight. SW winds G20kt NYC metro/coast.

Saturday: Becoming VFR in the morning. NW winds G20kt until around
midday.

Sunday: Chance MVFR or lower conditions mainly at night, with snow
changing to a wintry mix or rain.

Monday: VFR. SW winds G15-20kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
A Gale Warning remains in effect for all the forecast waters
into late tonight. With high pressure building to the west, and
a cold front moving to the south and east winds and gusts will
be diminishing. However, gale gusts will likely remain on the
ocean waters east of Fire Island Inlet until toward Thursday
morning, and the Gale warning was extended. There may be a brief
period of SCA gusts on the waters before falling below 25kt, and
an advisory may be issued. Small Craft seas likely remain on
the ocean waters into Thursday morning, so a SCA will be more
likely for the ocean waters once gales end. There may be a
brief break in SCA conditions on the ocean waters before gusts
increase once again by late Thursday night as another frontal
system begins to impact the waters. SCA conditions are likely
Friday and Saturday on the ocean. Elevated seas may persist on
the ocean east of Moriches Inlet Saturday night with conditions
below SCA levels on Sunday. Marginal SCA conditions are possible
on Monday, mainly east of Moriches Inlet.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the middle of next
week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for CTZ005>012.
NY...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for NYZ067>075-
     078>081-176>179.
NJ...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for NJZ002-004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Thursday for ANZ331-332-335-338-
     340-345-355.
     Gale Warning until 5 AM EST Thursday for ANZ350-353.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DS/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...DS/MET
HYDROLOGY...DS/MET